Strong central‑bank accumulation and a potential soft‑rate environment support long‑term upside.
Market Overview Gold traded at $4,515.90 per ounce on Comex, down 0.52% from the previous close, while silver hovered just above $67 per ounce. Domestic MCX gold futures fell 0.57% to Rs 1,56,577 per 10 grams; silver dropped 0.63% to Rs 2,40,811 per kilogram. The dip follows Fed Governor comments that may keep rates steady if inflation eases, lowering rate‑hike odds for September. The dollar has slipped to its lowest since May, and the yen rallied, reflecting global monetary policy shifts.
ETF Performance Highlights Gold ETFs have posted robust returns: HDFC Gold ETF, Kotak Gold ETF and Nippon India ETF Gold BeES delivered 43.47%, 43.53% and 43.24% over one year, and 32.37%, 32.49% and 32.27% over three years (as of 31 July 2026). Silver ETFs outperformed, with ICICI Pru Silver ETF at 95.24% and Nippon India Silver ETF at 94.55% one‑year returns, and 42.09% and 41.71% over three years. These gains underscore the long‑term appeal of precious metals amid central‑bank buying.
Outlook & Strategic Allocation Emkay Wealth Management projects gold could gain another 12% as central‑bank accumulation continues and a softer interest‑rate regime reduces opportunity costs. Silver may encounter resistance around $68 and $74 per ounce. Investors should consider a measured allocation to both metals for diversification, mindful of silver’s higher volatility and the possibility of intermittent corrections. The next payrolls report and inflation data will be key triggers for price movements.
