Arab Parties Become Decisive Power Brokers
Israel's post-election political landscape has shifted significantly, with Arab-led parties emerging as the critical swing factor in the formation of the next government. Following the recent elections to the 120-member Knesset, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing coalition secured 53 seats, while the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot won 48 seats. As neither side achieved the 61-seat majority necessary to govern, the 19 seats held by Arab parties have acquired substantial leverage.
This electoral outcome represents a notable increase in parliamentary representation for Israel's Arab minority, which constitutes approximately 21% of the population. The Arab representation in the new Knesset is split between the Joint List and the United Arab List (Ra'am), led by Mansour Abbas. Their combined strength allows them to influence parliamentary decisions, including the selection of the Knesset speaker and the legislative agenda, regardless of whether they join a governing coalition.
Internal Opposition Divisions
While the arithmetic suggests that the opposition could reach a majority with Arab support, significant internal divisions threaten to complicate negotiations. Although Eisenkot has indicated openness to working with Arab-led parties under certain conditions, key figures within his opposition grouping, including former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former Defence Minister Avigdor Liberman, have expressed strong opposition to any government that relies on Arab lawmakers, either as coalition members or external supporters.
This resistance creates a major obstacle for the opposition alliance. In 2021, Ra'am became the first Arab party to join a governing coalition, helping an eight-party alliance led by Bennett remove Netanyahu from office. However, that government collapsed after just over a year, raising questions about the stability of such alliances.
Controversies Over Foreign Interference
The election results have triggered intense political controversy. Netanyahu and his far-right allies have alleged that the outcome was influenced by voter fraud, intimidation, and foreign funding. Netanyahu described the situation as an "earthquake," claiming foreign entities interfered in the election to favor Arab parties. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir went further, calling for the arrest of Arab party leaders and alleging involvement from Qatar.
These allegations have been firmly rejected by multiple parties. Qatar has categorically denied interfering in Israel's elections or funding activities intended to influence the vote. Arab political leaders, including Ra'am chief Mansour Abbas and Joint List chairman Sami Abou Shahadeh, have denied any involvement in fraud and accused Netanyahu's camp of escalating hostility towards the Arab community.
Israel's Central Elections Committee has also pushed back against claims of widespread malpractice. Acting Director General Dean Livne stated that the election was conducted lawfully, with no basis for allegations of systematic violations. However, Committee Chair Justice Noam Sohlberg has directed Shin Bet chief David Zini to investigate suspicions of improper foreign influence, with findings due within a week. Shin Bet has clarified that its investigation is limited in scope and does not implicate the broader Arab community.
Path Forward for Government Formation
President Isaac Herzog is set to consult with party leaders and appoint a candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government. The appointed candidate will have 28 days to assemble a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. If no government is formed, Israel could face another election as early as spring 2027.
The potential paths forward include an opposition-led government under Eisenkot with external support from Arab parties, though this remains politically difficult due to internal resistance. Alternatively, a national unity government involving Likud and opposition parties is a possibility, although Eisenkot has ruled out serving under Netanyahu. Netanyahu could also attempt to attract individual lawmakers from the opposition, but principal opposition leaders have publicly rejected joining his government.
The coming weeks will determine whether the Arab parties' electoral strength translates into a direct role in government or remains limited to parliamentary support, with the outcome hinging on the willingness of opposition leaders to accept Arab backing.