Trade figures reveal a widening gap In the first three quarters of 2026, India’s merchandise exports to China reached roughly **$19 billion**, up more than 40 % year‑on‑year. By contrast, imports from China surged to **$125 billion**, pushing the bilateral trade deficit to **$106 billion**. For every dollar earned from Chinese buyers, Indian firms spent over six dollars on Chinese goods.
Dependence goes beyond consumer items The imbalance is not limited to finished products. Indian manufacturers draw on Chinese **electronics components, machinery, industrial chemicals, pharmaceutical ingredients, solar‑panel equipment and battery technologies**. These inputs are often unavailable domestically at comparable cost or scale, making them indispensable for sectors ranging from **pharmaceuticals to renewable‑energy projects**.
Non‑tariff barriers compound the problem Finance Minister **Nirmala Sitharaman** has called China’s non‑tariff restrictions the “biggest hurdle” to a fair trade relationship. Indian exporters repeatedly cite opaque approval processes, stringent certification rules and lengthy sanitary‑phytosanitary checks that delay market entry, especially for **pharmaceuticals, agricultural produce and certain services**. While such regulations can be justified on safety grounds, the lack of transparency raises concerns about discriminatory treatment.
Strategic implications Reliance on a single supplier for critical inputs creates **supply‑chain fragility**. Any disruption—whether geopolitical, logistical or regulatory—could raise production costs and erode the competitiveness of Indian factories that appear domestically based but are still tied to Chinese parts.
A WTO‑based roadmap The **World Trade Organization’s Integrated Trade Intelligence Portal (I‑TIP)** offers a platform to catalogue Chinese measures affecting Indian exports. By documenting approval timelines, rejection rates and comparative treatment of other nations, India can raise **specific trade concerns** in WTO committees and, if needed, pursue dispute settlement. The same rigor should be applied to India’s own regulations, which have also faced WTO scrutiny.
Policy options moving forward - **Negotiated outcomes**: Seek clearer timelines, published rejection criteria and faster clearances for identified Indian products. - **Domestic capacity building**: Invest in R&D, infrastructure and alternative sourcing for high‑risk inputs. - **Targeted export promotion**: Shift focus from traditional commodities to higher‑value manufactured goods and services.
Outlook India is unlikely to curtail trade with China given the deep economic ties, but a **balanced, transparent relationship** is essential to prevent the current deficit from translating into a strategic liability.
*The analysis reflects the views of Shishir Priyadarshi, President of Chintan Research Foundation and former WTO Director, and does not represent the editorial stance of NEWZA.*