Anuj Jain, co‑founder and CIO of Green Portfolio, believes the commodities supercycle has just begun. He highlights that the energy transition alone will need copper, lithium and nickel at volumes never seen before. This creates a strong case for metal and mining stocks today.
He points out that defence spending worldwide has risen after Ukraine and West Asia conflicts. In India, 75% of the defence procurement budget goes to domestic firms, giving a 10‑15‑year revenue stream. Therefore, defence stocks should be a core part of any portfolio.
Jain also says India’s ₹11 lakh crore infrastructure push adds domestic tailwinds. However, supercycles take 15‑20 years, and we are probably in the early stages, possibly with 2023 as the inflection point. Metal and mining companies are therefore worth a weight.
On the June quarter earnings season, Jain notes a mixed‑to‑decent picture. The Nifty 50 grew 8‑10% year‑on‑year, and sectors like FMCG and auto surprised on volumes thanks to a strong monsoon last year.
He highlights three surprises. First, capital‑goods order inflows were strong, with L&T and ABB reporting multi‑year order books. Second, real‑estate residential bookings stayed resilient despite higher mortgage rates. Third, the chemical sector beat earnings, with Deepak Nitrite and Laxmi Organic posting PAT increases of 27%–216%.
For the September quarter, Jain expects better outcomes as the monsoon remains robust and corporate revenues jumped 22% year‑on‑year in June. Input‑cost pressures should ease, boosting demand momentum.
Regarding the economy, he believes India can stay resilient even with West Asia tensions. Over 55% of GDP comes from private consumption, and government capex of ₹11 lakh crore supports growth. If the monsoon stays healthy and oil stays below $95 a barrel, a 7% GDP growth is achievable.
On the RBI, Jain says a full status quo is unlikely. The central bank has already cut rates as inflation moves toward 4%. Another cut, likely in February 2027, is possible if commodity prices stay high, but a prolonged pause seems improbable.
He stresses that defence is the one sector investors cannot ignore. With FY26 allocations near ₹6.8 lakh crore and 75% of spend on domestic firms, it offers a multi‑decade compounding story. Small and mid‑cap defence suppliers are especially attractive.
Finally, the market remains in consolidation because of high valuations, global uncertainties and political noise ahead of state elections. Quality midcaps will continue to compound quietly, and patience pays off.