TCI Express (TCIEXP IN) delivered a first‑quarter performance that largely met expectations. The company posted an EBITDA margin of 10.0%, close to the projected 10.1%, while freight volumes grew by 7.3% year‑on‑year to 250,000 metric tonnes from 248,000 in the previous year.
The surface express segment led the growth story, increasing by 8.7% YoY. This rise was driven by new customer acquisitions, higher wallet share from existing clients, and steady demand from key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, electric vehicles, and engineering.
Ancillary services—including rail express, air express, C2C, and e‑commerce logistics—also performed well during the quarter. These segments contributed positively to the overall earnings picture.
A price hike implemented in June 2026 is expected to influence the margin trajectory. Analysts will closely monitor how the new rates affect profitability in the coming months.
Looking ahead, the outlook for TCI Express is optimistic. Analysts project a volume compound annual growth rate of 7% over the next two years, with EBITDA margins expected to rise to 11.1% in FY27E and 12.1% in FY28E.
Despite the recent rally in the stock price, the rating has been downgraded from BUY to HOLD. The target price remains at INR 576, based on a 19‑times multiple of FY28 earnings per share, with no change to the multiple.
Investors are advised to consider these projections in the context of market conditions and to seek professional advice before making investment decisions.