On Tuesday, 4 August, spot gold on the Comex climbed 0.47 percent to $4,109.90 per ounce. Silver also advanced, gaining 1.84 percent to $58.92 per ounce. In India, October gold futures on the MCX rose 0.34 percent to Rs 1,43,397 per 10 grams, while September silver futures climbed 1.12 percent to Rs 2,19,180 per kilogram as of 09:37 IST.
Investors are now looking at a series of US labour market reports due this week. The JOLTS job openings data will be released later on Tuesday, followed by the ADP private employment report on Wednesday and the highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. These figures are expected to give new clues about the Federal Reserve’s interest‑rate path.
Geopolitical headlines also weigh on markets. President Donald Trump said talks with Iran were underway, calling it a “last chance” for Tehran to agree to a deal. Iran denied any negotiations, but the news eased crude oil prices and lifted risk assets. The rupee rose 3 paise to 95.34 against the dollar, while Brent crude fell 5.06 percent to $83.48 per barrel.
Renisha Chainani, Chief Research Officer at Augmont, said gold is likely to stay in a consolidation range until the labour data clarifies US monetary policy. She added that weak jobs data could weaken the dollar and give gold room to rise. Abhinav Tiwari of Bonanza highlighted that renewed geopolitical uncertainty and pending US data are driving safe‑haven demand for gold, silver, platinum and palladium.
The Augmont Bullion report on 4 August projects that if gold drops below $4,000 (Rs 1,41,000) it could fall to $3,900 (Rs 1,38,000). Conversely, if it stays above $4,200 (Rs 1,46,000) a rally could push it toward $4,500 (Rs 1,55,000). For silver, a move above $63 (Rs 2,35,000) could lead to prices near $70–71, while a fall below $55 (Rs 2,14,000) could pull it down to $50 (Rs 2,00,000).
Traders are pricing in a 65 percent probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. With oil easing inflation concerns and Treasury yields falling, the market remains cautious ahead of the US labour reports.