Gold prices weakened this month, even though they surged at the beginning of July. The rally was driven by renewed US‑Iran tensions that pushed investors toward safe‑haven assets. However, some gains were lost as traders took profits.
On the MCX, gold rose from about Rs 1,41,850 per 10 grams on July 1 to Rs 1,47,650 on July 3, a gain of roughly 4.1 percent in just two trading sessions. The rally proved short‑lived, and by July 17 prices had fallen to Rs 1,40,550 as markets reassessed the geopolitical backdrop.
By July 20, the metal had recovered modestly, with MCX prices returning to Rs 1,41,850. The all‑time high on January 29 was beyond Rs 1,80,000 ($5,600) per 10 grams, while the June 30 correction was almost 30 percent toward Rs 1,40,000 ($3,960).
Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, said the price drop reflects inflation fears from oil‑driven Fed hawkishness outweighing safe‑haven demand. She noted that gold fell to around $4,000 per ounce, its lowest level since late June.
Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research at Geojit Investments, added that much of the risk premium is already priced in. He said investors are looking beyond headline risks and focusing on interest‑rate expectations, inflation trends and central‑bank buying.
Experts suggest existing investors keep their positions while new buyers look for price corrections instead of chasing rallies. Chainani recommends a hold stance, with fresh buying on dips toward $3,950‑$4,000 support. She cautions that aggressive selling is not yet warranted, but a confirmed rate hike or further oil spike could push the metal toward $3,900.
Overall, gold remains a sensitive barometer of geopolitical and economic sentiment, and traders should stay alert to policy shifts and market volatility.